Last updated on August 30th, 2019
Mind Games of Skripals, Novichok & Secrets
Ignore everything that UK gov and its representative in mass media have said for a moment (as seen in this video explaining some of the duplicity) and cast your minds to a bit of Bletchley Park history. This was the place that thanks to some clever maths, clever engineers and the fortuitous arrival of a captured nazi code machine, the British had very good knowledge about what the German nazis were up to in WW2. Most people have a good idea about all of this from films and TV.
Not quite so many are aware that despite this forewarned knowledge of air raids and submarine attacks on convoys by the nazis, many attacks were allowed to proceed as if there was no knowledge. Tens of thousands of British and allied service personnel and civilians were shot, bombed, blasted or sunk to an early grave.
The reason was to keep the secret that the nazi codes had been broken, secret. If the nazis knew that their secrets weren’t safe they’d have changed the codes. So for a long time in WW2, we (the British) knew what they (the nazis) knew. Critically, they didn’t know what we knew.
The knowledge was used sparingly because of this, to be used at what were considered the right moments for the time.
The cut-down Sky interview bears careful viewing since CE Aitkenhead was being very careful with his words. He identifies the Skripal poison as a military grade poison but can’t say which or where it came from. There are well-versed chemical reasons for this – essentially you need a sample. Without a sample to compare spectroscope fingerprints only an approximation is possible. Chris Busby explains a bit here.
- Aitkenhead in his interview says that nothing can get out of Porton Down.
- Aitkenhead calls the poison a military grade one, meaning it needs the resources of a state to make it.
- In an interview on Sky News Craig Murray makes and repeats claims that have alternate verifications that the place in the former USSR where nerve agents were made was inspected and dismantled by the USA. He reports that the USA inspectors said barrels of the stuff were just lying around, unguarded. The supposed creator of Novichok emigrated to the USA, though he has said Novichok is too hard to make outside of state resources.
- Yet here is Busby saying that it is quite easy to make these chemicals. Several chemists elsewhere have said the same.
- But now consider Aitkenhead’s video with the view that some Novichok is either stored at Porton Down, or they had access to the “fingerprint”.
- And remember that the USA, top ally, had very good access to the Novichok when they dismantled the USSR works and scientist now he’s a USA citizen.
- And now remember that the UK has been checked by Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) and apparently cleared.
- And finally, remember the secrets at Bletchley, carefully guarded and nurtured.
Now consider some various statements of “fact” put out or repeated by UK gov’t or the mass media.
- Novichok is really deadly, much worse than Sarin or VX nerve stuff.
- Novichok is very fast acting.
- Novichok was apparently stuck on the front door knob.
And compare these facts with some other actual happenings.
- The Skripals didn’t die quickly.
- The Skripals are recovering.
- Many people touched the door knobs for weeks.
- Firemen in standard uniform are photographed standing right next to Porton Down taff in full hazard suits. In Salisbury.
What If 1
What if the stuff is in Porton Down or that a signature is actually in their possession? The UK cannot say this even in this era of Trump lies and falsehoods. They just cannot.
All they can say is that it is “like” Novichok – and this is what we have heard. In such a scenario they (the UK) are all faced with keeping the secret, except paradoxically Boris Johnson who has blabbed out the truth. So yet more bizarrely, having a contradiction by Porton Down boss Aitkenhead has succeeded in keeping the secret more secure by using Boris’ oafishness as extra cover.
It means both Boris and Aitkenhead are both covered, in public – there’s stuff but they aren’t sure.
In private, likewise, except there’s stuff and they are sure. But to do this it would make Aitkenhead a liar. Given his earlier work at Motorola and as a scientist-engineer probably not – so in this scenario I see Aitkenhead not being aware of all the corners in Porton Down which leaves someone else to have told Boris the possession fact providing fuel for his exposé. It’s not the first time that senior staff don’t know everything. How can they?
Is all of this do-able? Of course – just remember Bletchley Park and the secrets.
What If 2
What if there is no Novichok?
If this is true then the whole thing is a charade. Everything. Probably. Maybe the Skripals got botulinism or similar, in which case all the hospital staff in the know would be on lockdown. As a “matter of national security”, as the stage onto which it was rapidly was elevated became, it’s simple for police to close out a hospital area – happens all the time for Royals in labour or when they’re sick. That leaves just a few medics to be signed up to the Official Secrets Act and job done.
What If 3
Someone, somewhere created a small batch of Novichok. Busby and other chemists have said that this is perfectly feasible. But where?
In this scenario I see two main choices:
- Someone, an assassin say, makes some Novichok but it is not very good.
- Someone, tucked away in Porton Down doing overtime makes some Novichok of a nice weak strength.
Either of these has the reported observed effects of two sick people getting slowly better. It does not explain the why.
Why bother making two people pretty ill? We have to note that given all the publicity in these two options Russia comes out looking pretty bad in each case. The useless assassin or a British Secret Service setup using buried agents both make Russia look bad..
Near The End
At this point, I’m having a rest from what-ifs. I’ll just get back to standard Morse-Lewis Agatha Christie detectivenessivity.
- Motive? Who gains? What is gained?
- Who loses? Life? Cash? Power? Status?
- Is anybody connected actually clinically insane or psychotic?